Future Scenarios and Organisational Issues for a CO2-neutral Future

Berenschot quantifies scenario analyses for Gasunie and organises an integration meeting in the context of the Energy Dialogue.

Berenschot recently developed two future scenarios for the energy situation in 2050. First, Berenschot looked at a scenario involving a fully CO2-neutral gas supply, whereby gas is used as a sustainable energy carrier. Next, the costs of Gasunie’s integrated scenario for 2050, developed for the Energy Dialogue, were quantified. On the basis of the insights gained from this, an integration meeting was held together with Quintel Intelligence, in the context of the Energy Dialogue. Under the title ‘Future Scenarios and Organisational Issues for a CO2-neutral Future’ the organisational issues were discussed using an interactive approach on the basis of the ‘Trias Transitia’ concept.

Gas as a Sustainable Energy Carrier

The first study conducted by Berenschot was carried out under contract to GasTerra and Gasunie and explored the potential role of gas as a CO2-neutral energy carrier in 2050. The purpose of this study was to accelerate the transition to a sustainable energy future. In the study, gas is explored as a transition solution, as a supplement to the already planned renewable energy developments, such as wind at sea and PV solar energy.

In addition, Berenschot was requested to prepare the cost calculation for the 2050 energy system for the ‘2050 Exploration’ prepared by Gasunie. To facilitate the energy transition debate, Gasunie developed an outline of the final energy system scenario for 2050. From the analysis performed by Berenschot it can be concluded that the costs for this 2050 final energy system scenario are lower than if we were to continue to provide our energy supply as we do today.

Energy Dialogue Integration Meeting

Pursuant to this, Berenschot in cooperation with Quintel Intelligence, organised an integration meeting in the context of the Energy Dialogue with the subject ‘Future Scenarios and Organisational Issues with a View to the Energy Transition’.

Two CO2 future scenarios were presented by Gasunie and the Natuur & Milieu [Nature & Environment] Foundation, each with its own vision for 2050 and 2035, respectively. Berenschot then delved deeper into the elements required for a feasible CO2-neutral 2050: the cost of key measures, flexible options for sustainability in the developed environment and an exploration of easily achievable gas measures, such as green gas and gas CCS. Quintel Intelligence concluded the first part of the afternoon session with an outlook on future changes in the industry and the impact of these changes on a sustainable future.

Later in the afternoon, participants entered into a dialogue about achieving a CO2-neutral future. The dialogue was conducted on the basis of the ‘Trias Transitia’ with which Berenschot integrates the energy policy’s three main objectives. Measures were discussed by six groups from the perspective of new combined goals: the affordability of clean, the affordability of reliable and the reliability of clean. This created new points of view, whereby the following questions were answered: What are the promising options? What measures need to be taken? Who organises, what and how? Following the presentation of the results of this dialogue, Aart Dekkers closed the afternoon session on behalf of the Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Additional Information

For more information, visit the Energy Dialogue website.

Bert den Ouden’s presentation made on behalf of Berenschot can be downloaded here (1.4 MB PDF).

In addition, Berenschot’s background reports with the quantitative explorations are available in the link module.